IS THIS AN OUTLIER? – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  We refer to the IBD/TIPP poll, which had the best record of accuracy in the 2012 presidential race.  From IBD: 

Donald Trump held onto his 1-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the second day of the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll — 41% to 40%. Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Part's Jill Stein remain far behind at 7% and 5%, respectively.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton continues to hold a three-point lead over Trump — 43% to 41%. The poll included 779 likely voters, giving it a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The second day's results of the IBD/TIPP poll don't reflect any impact of the spirited presidential debate Wednesday night, which covered a wide range of issues, from the Supreme Court, to abortion, to ISIS, to economic policy and entitlement reform.

During the debate, Clinton repeatedly struggled to defend her policy positions and the Clinton Foundation scandal against sharp questioning from moderator Chris Wallace. When asked, for example, about conflicts of interest involving the foundation while she was Secretary of State, Clinton tried to turn the focus on what she described were the strengths of the nonprofit.

Rasmussen also defies the predictions of most of the polls:

It’s too early to measure the impact of last night’s final presidential debate, but Republican Donald Trump now has a three-point lead nationally on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40%. Six percent (6%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and three percent (3%) favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

COMMENT:  Ditto the Los Angeles Times poll, which has consistently put Trump ahead.  Are these simply outliers, the polls that we'll look to in the future as having been terribly wrong, or are they finding things the others aren't?  We won't know until the election is over, but the cold fact remains that the RealClearPolitics average of polls puts Clinton 6.4 points ahead. 

I have no educated guesses here.  I have only a hunch that the race will tighten toward the end unless Trump totally self-destructs, which is a possibility.  On the other hand, Clinton can have a medical crisis, another possibility.  All speculation at this point.

October 20, 2016